The die is cast. The Independent National Electoral Commission has announced David Lyon of the All Progressives Congress the winner of the governorship election in Bayelsa state after he comprehensively defeated Douye Diri of the incumbent PDP.
David Lyon swept six local government areas, including that of former President Goodluck Jonathan, leaving only two for Douye Diri and the PDP. His victory meant that for the first time, another party apart from the PDP will be taking the reins of government in Bayelsa state.
For the uninitiated, the victory came as a huge surprise. However, for those who have been paying attention to the intrigues in the state, particularly with the numerous resignations from the government of Governor Seriake Dickson weeks before the election, there were tell-tale signs that the election was going to be a different one.
To begin with, Seriake Dickson has been woeful in office. Given the status of Bayelsa as an oil-rich state, it draws billions from the Federal Government in allocations but remains mired in underdevelopment and slowed economic growth, a challenge that reached new heights under the watch of Seriake Dickson.
The failure of the governor to pay salaries for several months also compounded his problems and created a gulf between him and several workers of the state.
Lacking competence and results to show, Seriake Dickson also took on the political bigwigs in the state, including former President Goodluck Jonathan who helped him to power.
According to some insiders, the disaffection between the godfather and his godson was aggravated months to the primary elections of the PDP in the state when it became clear that Dickson, using his influence as governor, had bent the leadership of the party to his will and orchestrated the emergence of Duoye Diri against the wish of Jonathan.
Displeased with the turnout and keen on teaching the governor a lesson, Goodluck Jonathan and his allies turned to the opposition All Progressives Congress and helped a little-known David Lyon to power. So comprehensive is the defeat of Dickson and his PDP candidate, many are suggesting it may finally be the end of his political career in the state.
The consequence of PDP’s defeat and why Jonathan will regret the move
President Goodluck Jonathan will certainly derive some satisfaction from the confirmed victory of his favored candidate. However, some are predicting that the former president has just cut his nose to spite his face, and will come to regret the decision later.
This prediction is informed by the understanding that the All Progressives Congress is already consolidating political power ahead of the battle that looms in 2023 and the influence of the national organs of the party will be too difficult for David Lyon to ignore, even if they come at odds with the Goodluck Jonathan. This means that there is a high chance of the governor-elect going rogue, like Seriake Dickson.
Worse still, the victory, according to many, has given the All Progressives Congress an inroad into a region where it hitherto struggled to gain a foothold. With Godwin Obaseki in Edo State [if he is allowed to get another term] and now David Lyon in Bayelsa, the PDP may fail to get the almost guaranteed block of votes derived from the south-south region every election year. Simply put, it may prove a fatal blow to the party’s chance of reclaiming power in 2023.
Goodluck Jonathan to decamp?
Seeing how much of a blow the defeat is to the PDP and Goodluck Jonathan’s convenient arrangement with the All Progressives Congress even though other options were available, it appears that it is only a matter of time before the former President joins the rank of those who conspired to kick him out of office four years ago.
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